In the Economic Data Forest, Which Trees Matter in Today’s Environment?

This week (starting March 10), there is a flurry of economic data scheduled for release. The problem for investors is that quantity blurs quality, so figuring out which data to prioritize is a challenge.

Considering current economic conditions, with weakness on both GDP and inflation, we are focusing primarily on anticipatory data – not as much where we are, but where we are likely to go.

Our main priority is investment figures, as they historically correlate with stagflation. When gross investment drops below what the economy needs to replace depreciated production capacity, the system loses the ability to supply enough goods to satisfy demand. This creates a double whammy of inflation (supply < demand) and slow growth (drops in investment and consumption).

The second variables we underscore refer to employment, consumer sentiment, and wages. These can be a bit more nuanced – a strong labor market with low unemployment and rising wages generates inflation pressures but supports GDP, or poor consumer sentiment anticipates lower inflation but a drop in consumption (and as a result, GDP). Nevertheless, these are good anticipatory variables for future consumer behavior whose behavior will drive or drag the overall GDP trend considering that consumption represents 65% to 70% of the US economy.

In the calendar for the week starting March 10, we highlight:

• Monday 11.00am – Survey of Consumer Expectations (NY Fed)

• Tuesday 10.00am – Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover survey, JOLTS (Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS)

• Wednesday 8.30am – Consumer Price Index, CPI (BLS)

• Thursday 8.30am and 10.00am – Producer Price Index, PPI (BLS), and Weekly Economic Index, WEI (Dallas Fed), respectively.

[Note: the WEI is an overlooked-but-valuable blend of 10 indicators covering consumer behavior, labor market, production data, etc., and it’s a good leading indicator for GDP growth trends.]

• Friday 10.00am and 11.45am – Michigan Consumer Survey (University of Michigan), and NY Fed Staff Nowcast (NY Fed).

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